Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid April 6, 2025 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around April 18, 2025, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ...Severe Drought Conditions Remain Across the Brush Country... ...Historical Rainfall Improves Drought Across Most of the Rio Grande Valley... Drought Intensity and Extent Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are no longer being observed across Deep South Texas. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across over 22% of Deep South Texas, including Zapata, most of Jim Hogg, and western Starr counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across over 24% of Deep South Texas, including most of Starr, southwestern Hidalgo, southeastern Jim Hogg, northern Brooks, and northern Kenedy counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions continue across over 45% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Jim Hogg, Starr, Brooks, Kenedy, Hidalgo, most of Willacy, and western Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Drought conditions have improved or remained the same across most of Deep South Texas. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across portions of southern Zapata, western Starr, northeastern Kenedy, eastern Willacy, and Western Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class improvement across portions of central Jim Hogg, northwestern Brooks, western Kenedy, western Willacy, northeastern Starr, and most of Hidalgo counties. Precipitation A very dry month of March ended with historical rainfall. All of Deep South Texas has received 100% or more of normal rainfall over the past 30 days, with most of Deep South Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley receiving at least 300% of normal rainfall. Over the past 90 days, all of Deep South Texas has received 100% or more of normal rainfall, with most of the Rio Grande Valley receiving between 200-600% of normal rainfall, especially from southeastern Hidalgo through northern Cameron counties. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally above normal between 85-90+ degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly above normal between 60-65+ degrees. Overall, below normal lows are expected through Sunday, April 13th, 2025, with below normal highs through Wednesday, and near to slightly above normal highs Thursday through Sunday. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows have improved to above normal due to historical rainfall at the end of March across the Rio Grande Valley. Most rainfall occurred southeast of the reservoirs, leaving Texas water share levels at both Amistad and Falcon Lake low. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures range from near normal towards the brush country to well-above normal across the Rio Grande Valley, with crop moisture indices generally near to well-above normal across Deep South Texas. Fire Hazard Impacts Normal wildland fire activity is expected April through July 2025 for all of Deep South Texas Burn bans are now in effect for all of Deep South Texas. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have improved to above normal following historical rainfall at the end of March. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is now between the 76th and 90th percentile for this time of year. Unfortunately, most of the rainfall in late March fell southeast of the reservoirs, where it is desperately needed. Texas water share values have remained near 26% at Amistad and now only just above 16% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir Data Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1050.77 | 25.9% Falcon Lake: 301.10 | 257.03 | 16.4% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 26.1% | 26.5% | 28.1% Falcon Lake: 15.9% | 14.2% | 15.6% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures range from near normal towards the brush country to well-above normal across the Rio Grande Valley. Crop moisture indices are generally near to well-above normal across Deep South Texas. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range between 300-500 across the brush country, with 0-300 across the remainder of Deep South Texas. Normal wildland fire potential is expected April through July 2025 for Deep South Texas. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Little to no rainfall is expected across Deep South Texas into next weekend, with the best chance, less than 10 percent, occurring along the coast into tonight. Overall, rain chances through Tuesday, April 15th, 2025 are leaning below normal across Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks There is a 40-50% probability of above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of April. There is an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of April. Through June 2025, there is a likely chance of above normal temperatures and an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across portions of northwestern Zapata County through June 2025. Drought is expected to improve and end across most of Deep South Texas, including the northern ranchlands, most of the brush country, and all of the Rio Grande Valley, through June 2025.